This week’s newsletter is written by Jared Blikre, a reporter that focuses on the financial markets in Yahoo Finance. Follow him on Twitter @SPYJared.
The S&P 500 (^GSPC) is plagued by the problem of breadth.
The stock market’s summer rally ended last week, following an impressive 17.4 percent increase in the S&P 500 between mid-June lows and mid-August highs.
However, in a similar fashion to the FAANG time period in the period prior to the outbreak 30 percent of all the work was again handled by just four stocks: Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN) along with Tesla (TSLA).
As these trades lose momentum and the culprits such as the strengthening dollar once again are exposed This recent rally seems more unstable than just a few weak sessions may otherwise suggest.
Apple is, in all likelihood, the most important bellwether company on Earth has suffered its biggest two-day drop in the past the past two weeks on Monday and Friday after it hit a key resistance to the trend line. The stock was able to breach a distinct and steeptrend line to the left; the stock is now sitting at its moving average of 20 days.
The summer was a great time for Apple. Apple was within 4 percent of its record-high — a remarkable increase for a company that plunged by 30% from March to mid-June. The swift reversal however, has Apple shares in a tense position.
The same time, Microsoft mustered a 21 percentage rally that brought the stock just 16% below its record peak. However, five days later Microsoft has confirmed the pattern of an island reverse on the daily candles. Amazon is also in the same boat, however it is “on the island” -consolidating what was the 45% gain that occurred during its recent high.
In contrast Elon Musk’s Tesla appears to be a little more robust after a 50% rise that wasn’t quite as dramatic and not sustainable as Apple’s. However, the company has had a difficult time getting past the halfway point of its slide from record-highs, which suggests that shorts have the edge when it comes to a longer-term timeframe. At a price of less than $1,000 is the level we would expect Tesla bears to begin throwing away the towel.
All of this, of course, would be alarming if the entire market had been more involved during the initial stages.
Some measures of internal market indicators have been showing bullish signals in recent weeks. The proportion of S&P 500 components that are trading higher than their fifty-day average mean, for example, was above 90% to the highest level in more than one year.
However, key industry leaders and organizations — like the high yield bond market as well as the semiconductor industry — have underperformed throughout the summer’s rise and have quickly reversed. The short-covering junk-off-the-bottom rally will only get an economy so far.
In the meantime, investors who are bullish are on the edge of their seats and counting the minutes until Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell’s keynote Jackson Hole speech Friday morning.
However, most strategists believe that investors should not be concerned about the possibility of a Powell change this close to the rate hike cycle of the Fed. The Fed chief made it clear many times during his press conference in July, saying that the next steps of the Fed focus on the forthcoming data — namely inflation statistics and nothing else.
What’s more troubling for investors is the fact that U.S. stocks accounted for 86% of the global gains in equity during the recent market rally, according Michael Hartnett’s team from BofA Securities. In a different direction at and away from the U.S. stock market, there’s no reason to believe that the recent rally in risk stocks booming when the dollar eased off its raging rise.
This respite is not lasting the 7-session rally within the U.S. dollar index (DX-Y.NYB) overcame 20 sessions of a decline of the same magnitude, and put the dollar back to the two-decade mark.
Today, the euro is now at a lower level against the dollar — which is a blessing for travelers, but a nightmare for Europe that is currently in recession and is leading the world’s economy to follow according to some experts.
If Powell is able to make a statement that knocks the dollar off its platform, don’t count on any help by the Fed.
Investors who are looking for the next catalyst for bullishness could take heart in any hint from Powell toward an end to the reduction of balance sheetswhich is also known as quantitative tightening, which puts stress on bonds, currencies and the money market.
Making investors more secure in the same way, which is just refraining from fighting against the Fed.